云南会泽井水位地震预测效能检验及其机理分析          下载免费PDF全文

孙小龙  向阳  杨朋涛 《地震学报》2018,40(2):185-194

云南会泽井水位在几次中强地震前均出现了显著的异常变化，表明该井水位对其周边的中强地震具有较好的映震效果。本文利用Molchan图表法对会泽井水位的预测效能进行了定量检验，并对其水位上升异常机理进行了分析探讨。Molchan图表法检验结果显示:会泽井水位异常的整体预测效能较好，对地震发生的时间和地点具有一定的指示意义；地震对应优势预测时间段为3个月以内，优势预测地区为川滇菱形地块以东区域。此外，会泽井处于地块边界带上的断裂交会部位，对与震源过程相关的区域构造活动响应较为灵敏，具有较好的预测效能。   相似文献   

LATE QUATERNARY PALEOEARTHQUAKES ON THE MIDDLE SEGMENT OF THE LIJIANG-XIAOJINHE FAULT,SOUTHEASTERN TIBET     

DING Rui  REN Jun-jie  ZHANG Shi-min  L&#  Yan-wu  LIU Han-yong 《地震地质》2018,40(3):622-640

More attention has been paid to the late Quaternary activity of the boundary fault of the Sichuan-Yunnan block in eastern Tibet. The Lijiang-Xiaojinhe Fault (LXF) locates along the boundary of the northwest Sichuan and central Yunnan sub-blocks in the Sichuan-Yunnan block. Clear displaced landforms show that the fault has undergone strong late-Quaternary activity. However there is no surface-rupturing earthquake occurring on the LXF in the historical record. The LXF crosses the city of Lijiang, one of the most important tourist cities in Southwest China. The rupture behavior on this fault remains unclear and it is hard to assess its seismic hazard in the future. In this study, on the base of the interpretation of high-resolution satellite imagery, we chose the middle segment of the LXF and dug three trenches at Muzhuda, Hongxing, and Gantangzi sites to constrain the ages of paleoearthquakes combined with radiocarbon dating and OxCal modeling. The Muzhuda trench shows that at least three events occurred on the middle segment of the LXF at 7 940~6 540a BP, 4 740~4 050a BP and 1 830~420a BP, respectively. The Hongxing trench indicates that the LXF underwent two events at 5 120~3 200a BP and 2 100~1 220a BP. The Gantangzi trench reveals at least three paleoearthquakes at 44 980~17 660a BP, 7 210~3 810a BP and 2 540~1 540a BP, respectively. The events in the Gantangzi trench might be incomplete because of stratigraphic gap. These three trenches indicate that three events occurred on the middle segment of the LXF in the Holocene at 7 940~7 210a BP, 4 740~4 050a BP and 1 830~1 540a BP, respectively. Large earthquakes on the middle segment of the LXF appear to fit the quasi-periodic model with the mean recurrence interval of~3 000a and the estimated magnitude 7.5. Given the strong late-Quaternary activity of the middle segment of the LXF and a long elapsed time, we propose that the middle segment of the LXF might have a high seismic hazard potential in the near future.  相似文献   

THE RESPONSE OF FLUVIAL GEOMORPHOLOGIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FUJIANG DRAINGE BASIN TO ACTIVITY OF THE HUYA FAULT ZONE     

LIANG Ou-bo  REN Jun-jie  L&#  Yan-wu 《地震地质》2018,40(1):42-56

The Huya Fault, located in the steep topographic boundary of the Minshan Mountains in the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, has documented many major earthquakes such as the 1630(M=6 3/4), 1973 Huanglong(M_S=6.5) and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake swarm(M_S=7.2, 6.7, 7.2). While its activity remains unclear because of lacking Quaternary sediments. In the past few decades, there have been significant advances in understanding the relationship between bedrock channel landscapes and active tectonics, indicating that the bedrock fluvial features can well record the tectonic activity. Many studies reveal that tectonism is the primary factor of landscape evolution in tectonically active regions, and the erosional landscapes can be used to reveal tectonic signals on timescales of 10³~10⁶ years. The Huya Fault crosses the Fujiang drainage basin, making it suitable for the study of bedrock rivers and tectonic uplift in the eastern margin of Minshan. In this study, we calculate the geomorphologic indeices(hillslope, local relief, normalized steepness indices and hypsometric integral) on the basis of the digital elevation model(DEM) SRTM-1. For better understanding the tectonic activity along this fault, we derive some small catchments on the two sides of the Huya fault to analyze the differences of average steepness indices and hypsometric integral. Combining with field observations, lithology, precipitation and modern erosion rates, this study suggests that tectonic activity is the controlling factor of geomorphology in the eastern margin of the Minshan Mountains. We use focal mechanism solutions, GPS data and geomorphic evidence to explore the relationship between the geomorphologic indices of the Fujiang drainage and activity characteristics of the Huya fault. Our results suggest that:(1) The Fujiang drainage basin is in a steady state. The characteristics of the knickpoints indicate that they are mainly controlled by the locally resistant substrate. (2) The suggested value of the geomorphologic index on the west side of the Huya fault is generally larger than on the east side, showing differential tectonic uplift rates across the fault. (3) The difference of the geomorphologic index of the small catchments on both sides of the Huya fault is gradually increasing from north to south along this fault, in accordance with that the north and south segments of the Huya fault are dominated by strike-and reverse-slip, respectively.  相似文献   

永清M_S 4.3地震前永清井水温异常分析     

王艳  何案华  邓卫平  戴应洪  吕文青  王会芳 《地震地磁观测与研究》2018,39(6):173-180

2017年12月永清井观测温度急剧下降，采用该井水温、水位多年观测数据，从仪器测量原理及精细温度梯度测量出发，结合井孔资料，认为该变化为永清M_S 4.3地震（井震距<30 km）发生前的异常信息。利用正弦累加模型计算温度异常持续时间和幅度，发现该异常变化存在2个周期：①周期42天，温度变化幅度为0.042 12℃；②周期16.77天，温度变化幅度为0.018 62℃。分析认为，区域应力状态发生变化，使含水层渗透性受到影响，从而间接影响到井下温度传感器安放处水温。地震发生后近距离观测到水温异常变化尚属首次，利用模型对变化时间与幅度进行量化提取，可为经验预报、统计预报提供经典震例。  相似文献   

Multi-stage metasomatism of lithospheric mantle by asthenosphere-derived melts: evidence from mantle xenoliths in daxizhuang at the eastern North China craton     

Zhao  XinMiao  Wang  Hui  Li  ZhiHan  Liu  FengLin  Evans  Noreen J.  Zhang  HongFu 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2020,114(2):141-159

Mineralogy and Petrology - A detailed study on petrology and mineral chemistry of 12 mantle xenoliths from Late Cretaceous basaltic lava flows at Daxizhuang has been conducted to constrain the...  相似文献   

UAV survey and numerical modeling of loess landslides: an example from Zaoling,southern Shanxi Province,China     

Ma  Siyuan  Wei  Jiangbo  Xu  Chong  Shao  Xiaoyi  Xu  Shiyang  Chai  Shaofeng  Cui  Yulong 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):1125-1140

Natural Hazards - This work attempted to reveal the geometric and kinematic characteristics of a loess landslide that occurred at Zaoling, southern Shanxi Province, China, on March 15, 2019. Based...  相似文献   

龙门山断裂带地壳结构的三维建模     

夏婷婷  张景发  田甜 《地震学报》2019,41(6):743-756

为了实现龙门山区域地质信息的科学管理与共享，推动该区域地球物理资料的统一管理，本文在整理现有二维地球物理探测数据的基础上构造了龙门山断裂带区域的三维地壳结构模型，并结合实测的布格重力异常数据对模型进行了分析。结果表明，地层模型正演的整体重力场与实测布格重力异常基本吻合，初步证明该模型的正确性。局部重力场显示:在该模型的尺度下，沉积层对整体重力场的变化贡献较小；中上地壳有不同程度的隆起和坳陷，与前人研究所揭示的低速异常体吻合；地幔表现为规则的自西北至东南单调上升的重力异常梯度带，与前人反演结果的趋势一致，从而证明了模型的可靠性。最后在重力资料约束下对模型进行了反演，进一步修正了模型。   相似文献   

天津王3井水位异常机理   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王熠熙  孙小龙  邵永新  刘双庆  李悦  李赫  王喜龙  龚永俭 《地震学报》2019,41(6):757-768

本文针对2016年6—9月天津王3井出现的井水位高值异常现象进行了异常机理分析。首先，利用频谱分析法提取了水位年动态并与区域降水量进行相关分析，排除降水的影响；其次，采用三阶多项式拟合计算了水位多年动态，定量地识别出王3井的水位年变异常，并取王3井及周边水源进行了水化学分析，结果显示，王3井所处局部区域的地下水主要成因为大气降水，存在一定的水岩作用，与周边水源之间无明显水力联系；最后，结合首都圈地震台站的波速比推测天津王3井所处的局部构造区域内可能存在一次短期应力积累过程。2016年9月10日发生的唐山M_S4.2地震缓解了此次局部应力积累，使得王3井内水位逐渐恢复正常年变特征。   相似文献   

A Review of the Calculation Formula for the Four-component Borehole Strainmeter and Application to Earthquake Cases   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

SU Kaizhi 《中国地震研究》2019,33(1):132-146

Based on the principle formula for the four-component strainmeters, we can directly obtain the specific plane strain, shear strain and azimuthal angle of the principal strain, and the maximum and minimum principal strains calculated afterwards are the indirect result. The problems of practicality of the sensitivity coefficients A and B of plane strain and shear strain are then discussed. Based on this idea, we analyzed the observation data of several four-component borehole strainmeters near the epicenter of the Yiliang M_S5.7 earthquake in 2012 and the Ludian M_S6.5 earthquake in 2014 in the Zhaotong area, Yunnan Province. The results show that the analysis based on the perspective of plane strain and shear strain has an obviously better effect than that based on the component readings, and can directly peel off the respective abnormality of the plane strain and shear strain. In addition, the correlation coefficient curves between measured data of two plane strains show significant anomalies which often occur several days before and during the earthquake.  相似文献   

2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震余震危险性概率分析          下载免费PDF全文

申文豪  杨芳 《地震学报》2018,40(5):654-663

本文介绍了余震危险性概率分析的概念，完整列出其相关公式的解析表达式并阐述了余震危险性概率分析的具体方法。以2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震为例，首先，求得该地震余震序列的相关参数，结果显示:九寨沟M_S7.0地震余震序列理论最大余震震级约为M_L5.3；b值约为0.784 1，明显低于中国西南地区同类型的其它地震，表明九寨沟地震余震区应力水平相对较高；p值约为1.109 7，明显高于中国西南地区同类型的其它地震，表明九寨沟地震余震序列随时间衰减较快。其次，计算此次地震余震与主震释放能量的比例关系，结果显示:在九寨沟M_S7.0地震事件中，截止到10月22日约99.69%的能量为主震所释放，0.31%的能量为余震所释放。最后，利用九寨沟M_S7.0余震序列参数结果并结合衰减关系，分别计算了主震后0—1天、1—10天、10—30天和90—100天内不同断层距内不同水平的峰值加速度和峰值速度的超越概率，结果显示:随着断层距增加，在相同时间间隔内超越概率的值呈下降趋势；在震后第一天内余震危险性最高，随着震后时间增加，相应的超越概率值呈现出明显下降趋势，表明九寨沟M_S7.0地震余震危险性主要来自早期余震。本文的相关成果可以为震后地震危险性分析提供参考，并为短时间内应急救援及灾后重建提供辅助决策意见。   相似文献